A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
